The one question that must be answered is not being asked.
The current debate over the democrats health care reform proposal has become as emotional as the debate over the war in Iraq. Both sides are making some very good points. But there is one question that must be addressed.
What if it doesn't work?
What if this bill destroys an already shaky economy, and makes life even worse for those it is intended to help?
This is not as far fetched as it sounds. This plan could, if enacted, knock the foundation from out of an already struggling economy, and push us in to another Great Depression. We could see a return to 33% unemployment, 50% under-employment, and the remainder under constant pressure and stress.
A FEW THINGS THE REPUBLICANS, DEMOCRATS AND PUNDITS AREN'T TELLING YOU
There are plenty of green shoots to give us reason for optimism. These green shoots are not the ones the Wall street financiers and their friends are looking for, they are the old fashioned green shoots that have stood the test of time for centuries. Personal savings rates are rising, and personal debt is slowly falling. This is always a solid foundation for a recovery. Savings must go up, and debt must fall before orders for goods and services recover completely. Despite what all the famous economists and politicians say, this point is not debatable. Both groups would do well to study a little factual history to place theoretical economics in context.
Because this is the case, we must tread lightly when it comes to spending more money. (We being the government of the United States.)
Massive amounts of debt have been heaped upon future generations of Americans over the last few years. But what they aren't telling you is that our generation already has a huge obligation to pay in public debt.
HOW THE CURRENT PLAN COULD DESTROY THE ECONOMY, AND HOW TO FIX IT
With the rosiest of scenarios, the plan will cost upwards of 1 trillion dollars over the next ten years. Half of this cost will be paid for with a surtax on wealthy Americans.
The truth of the matter is that the surtax on wealthy Americans must be used to pay for the coming shortfall in Social Security payments, and it's a small down payment on the amount that is really needed. There is no mathematical formula that shows any of this new health care spending can be paid for, even with larger tax increases.
I MUST REPEAT THIS SO YOU UNDERSTAND IT CLEARLY. THERE IS NO MATHEMATICAL EQUATION THAT SHOULD EVER LEAD YOU TO BELIEVE THAT THIS HEALTH CARE PLAN CAN BE PAID FOR OUT OF ANYTHING OTHER THAN DEBT. THE AGING POPULATION OF BABY BOOMERS MAKES THIS IMPOSSIBLE.
With the economy currently under water, it makes even less sense to embark on a program that could cost more jobs, and thus further erode the tax base.
This Catch-22 has not been discussed by the Democrats, which is understandable, but what's more confusing is even the Republicans have not brought up the issue. We like to believe that our elected politicians are among the best and brightest the nation has to offer. This is not the case.
Any decision which requires an investment on the scale of this health care reform bill demands a serious risk analysis study. This has not been done. When you start to consider the failure of this plan (as relates to the economy at large) you begin to see the danger.
If the plan fails, the economy follows suit. What is failure? It's not as hard to fathom, and it's not at all unlikely, as you may believe.
If the plan reduces health care costs of the average American, it is not immediately a success. If this lowering of costs, results in even a modest increase in unemployment, we will have unleashed a chain reaction, which will cause an economic implosion. We currently teeter on the brink of recovery, and a further slogging along with a jobless recession that could last years. If the health care reform bill is passed, it could very easily push us off of the path of recovery, and in to the Greatest of Depressions. As companies cut back to recover the cost of rising taxes, more homeowners go under water, and stop spending money, which causes even more people to lose jobs, homes, and ultimately health care.
WHAT IS THE SOLUTION?
This is the worst possible time to try out a massively expensive plan, the economy is not strong enough to sustain a failure. I believe both parties, and most Americans would like to see a health care safety net. To be fair, this would benefit the middle class much more than it would the wealthy or the poor, but it would solve the biggest problem, which is financial ruin due to a catastrophic illness. We could afford a plan to cover a catastrophic illness. This would probably cost about one tenth of the current plan and could kick in when an individual or family incurs costs exceeding ten thousand dollars per year. At ten thousand, you may need a ten year loan to pay it back, but it could be done by most in the middle class.
We must then shelve the idea of addressing health care on such a large scale as is currently proposed until such time as the economy is growing, jobs are being added, and both public and private debt are shrinking. Until then, any government plan at all that requires massive amounts of cash, is a risk to every American.
Before lending your support to this plan, or any health care plan which costs this much money we must ask the one tough question.
What if it doesn't work?
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lol, if i went back to where I came from, i'd go back to germany where they have a budding left movement, so it wouldn't be too much of a difference, heh.
I just don't believe that life or death of American citizens shold be a for-profit business. Call me whatever you like. I call myself a true hardcore American who cares if we are to be strong and make it out of our infant stage (we are a baby in historic years). My family helped found and build this nation - if you don't like go back to where youre recent ancestors came from - I've been her 400 years and accepted into own by the natives, and you? LOL, that's what I love to say :D
It could be an all new high for the people of america. It could guarentee time, efficiency, and humanity, all in one. We just need to right politicians making it, not the ones with thousands of pages of quite possibly horrendous ideas and suggestions.
I hear people talk about univeral healthcare trying to sound all threatening with saying it will be like the DMV. Well, the DVM keeps appointments on time, is strict with promises and tests, and does get things done when they say the will, if something is wrong they are prompt with the name and number of a supervisor to assist. It would be a VAST IMPROVEMENT :)
I blame insurance companies who squeeze the most out of you then leave you out to rot or be eaten by crows. I like that idea that imagine posted with kucinichs idea [i know i misspelled his name...]
"Obamacare"? I don't know what that is, and neither do you, with all due respect, as nothing solid has come out. I think you are mis-informed, as with any HMO or govt heatlthcare program like Medicare or Medicaid there are doctors who accept and there are those who dont. Even with the best private insurance there are docs who do and docs who dont. BLAME THE DOCTORS.
I completely support any non fascist [ie obamacare] national healthcare idea, as long as it is humanistic and not financialistic, and has everyone be able to choose doctors.
What I can say, as its almost external, is that its not just about "winning and getting to live". It's also about the loss of life. I obviously had to leave school for years, could't work (luckily I have a great family and had savings too). We are taliking about not just years that I lost, but my very education (as by the time I was in remission I had bills to the point of needing 2 jobs again, no time for school - or money, I should be by all rights a fucking amazing lawyer right now. My illness was known well in time to have prevented all of my hell, but the insurance company fought treatement due to cost. Now not only do I pay, but I am not paying as high taxes as I would be should be paying in my chosen career because I was ill too long. See where lack of health care costs the NATION now everyone?
I hear ya, LC... from my understanding, I likely would have died within my first year if my parents hadn't moved to California in that time. Apparently, I had a pretty nasty milk allergy (though you'd never guess it now)... but the doctor in Las Cruces never bothered testing for or diagnosing it. Just kept telling my parents to give me sugar water. Then we moved to California, the doctor there called the one back in Las Cruces an idiot, and diagnosed the allergy. In that particular case though, it was the doctor; not the insurance company. Anyway, off to bed.
I guess it is kinda like my white racism story about how I was hated, and about all the wrong things that occurred to me because I was white. I understand LC, there are some things you CAN talk about, and there are some things you don't want to.
:) I understand hon, and I absoultely could not talk about it today, just writing what I did gave me that severe sore throat that you get when youre talking about something thats going to make you cry a lot. I don't really think about it these days - because I can't and won't, as nothing good to come of it, though all of these people talking here and everywhere about health care, as if they know, brings it all back to be. I only think of it when I look at the scars on my arms from 13 months of 24/7 IV treatment which I know (3 doctors concur) could have been avoided had previous treatements been allowed by the corporations that dictated. Almost served them right that the IV med alone (aside from pack rental and doctor) cost $1300 per week.
LC - I listen. At the moment though, I must be getting to bed. But I do want to hear (or read) your story.
What is really scary is the day that you realize that the "health" insurance companies and their proxies are more powerful than God and any singular person, including any government official you can contact when it comes to whether you live or die, literlly. Years later, "Sicko" came out, and I couldn't even watch it all. I knew always I wasn't alone, as my doctor told me, but wow.
I would listen.
I meant if I posted something really long, like more than three paragraphs, lol. You know it's true.
Not nobody, LC... people do listen. Just that they might not always like it.
I could post literally pages of my personal story (with two different insurance companies- one while under my mother's and then under my own employers) and what REALLY happens when you get more than the flu. I can also tell you about Medicare and Medicaid. It would all fall on deaf ears. Nobody here will listen. That I believe more than my convictions regarding universal healthcare. DON'T BELIVE THE PROPAGANDA. That is the best I can say, having navigated and seen the "health care" industry American-style inside and out. It is by far cheaper to die.
THE AMERICAN HEALTHCARE SYSTEM HAS ALREADY FAILED GREATLY.
hmm
Although I very much agree with the arguments made here against the current socialized healthcare program and the assessment that concludes that our elected officials are not among the best and brightest the nation has to offer, I am just not comfortable with the tale of this post. It suggests that the liberal drive for bureaucare not be implemented but later, if and when the economy improves. That is a dangerous allowance. Beyond detrimental economic bureaucare is in and of itself a health threat. The healthcare reforms that Democrats are offering should come with an health warning from the Surgeon General. It is too dangerous a plan to suggest we try to implement at a later date. However, the question this post asks is one which deserves attention on many different levels, not just on the level of economic impact.
Whether it works or not, we will see 40- 50 % taxes
Rome burned at 35%................ you made it, enjoy
yea very few Americans are upset with their healthcare plan. And u Imagine have still not answered the question what happens if UHC does not work??? Then what???
Imagine, 3.9% of Americans (according to an ABC poll) are not satisfied with the care they receive, regardless of whether they pay for it or not. You are the one with no grasp on reality.
Friday, you're a fucking tool. You compared healthcare to a pony. Why? Why did you say "my kid doesn't have a pony">? Does it make you feel better than saying "My child doesn't have the medication he needs to live"? Be real about it. If you think freedom means profitting from human sickness, just say it. If you think people sufferign and dying becayse they can't get the treatment they need is freedom, say it. But you'd rather pretedn its a pony than deal with reality. You make me sick. Your mother should've swallowed you, or better yet, had an abortion.
The VA has great care but try getting access to it! Good luck. Its a cluster fuck of red tape and delays.
I don't think the question is "if" it will work. Conservatives know it won't work and Liberals never ask that question. They just see a problem (e.g. my kid doesn't have a pony) and a solution (buy my kid a pony). Speaking of which, congratulations to minimum wage workers who are getting a raise today, and condolences to minimum wage workers who are getting laid off today because the rest are getting a raise.
i would second mduminiak's point as it was what popped into my head when i read the teaser on the main page. the likeliness of the reform failing is greater than at anytime before because of current government hiring practices. theyare riddled with graft and nepotism which eliminates any semblence of merit hiring. the VA is the prime example of government run healthcare,,,,
Don't encourage them Gurr. If this "government as a competitor" thing doesn't work out, they'll just say "government is the only competitor".
i think regardless of it passing or not Obama is through
If it doesn't work the liberals will just say it needs more money. Which will come in the form of taxes and kill the economy before it even gets back on track.
It will not work and probably will set this country back for decades. Japan had one of those decades....THE LOST DECADE
I don't think we need to ask the question "What if it doesn't work?" as failure is pretty much a given considering Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and the failed bailouts. The question that is more appropriate is, "When it doesn't work, how bad will things get?"
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