Sunday, February 22, 2009
Chuck Devore to challenge Boxer
| Californian Chuck Devore resigned his position as Republican whip to protest the California budget and the tax increases. Now he has really thrown down the gauntlet and is challenging Senator Barbara Boxer in the 2010 California senate race. One may be tempted to say that Chuck Devore was grandstanding when he resigned, they would be wrong. A glance at Mr. Devore's voting record shows that this is a politician who knows how to say no. On 24 budget and tax issues in California from May of 2006 to December of 2008, Devore voted No, voting yes on only 2 issues, one of which was procedural. Devore is also a strong social conservative which should ignite his base, and his opposition to gay marriage would garner him some of the crossover votes that materialized in the 2008 election. Devore has embraced the web like few other politicians and appears to have learned from President Obama's use of social networking to boost his profile. He uses twitter.com regularly and was featured in the Wall Street Journal as a savvy internet politician. Although he is blogging on his own site, he hasn't yet connected his campaign site to the social networking/bookmarking world, which he must do to complete the web triangulation. If Devore makes this move in the next couple of months, he can generate sufficient web popularity to stifle any counter moves by Boxer and further raise his profile among the all important moderates and independents. This may seal the deal for him in 2010. The social bookmarking resource was no more apparent than during the fight for Proposition 8, which showed clearly that when an issue hits digg.com, reddit.com and other social bookmarking sites, the independent minded voters will pick up on the buzz and have no problem crossing party lines. In what has got to be the strangest (and most under-reported) aspect of the 2008 campaign, the social networking and bookmarking was driven by the supporters of Prop 8, but exposure works both ways and the end result was that the web publicity actually hurt the cause and Proposition 8 was defeated. Devore, by starting early, will be in a position to get his message out on the web on his own terms, and thus be much less susceptible to last minute pushes by the Democratic grass roots A strategy effectively used by the Obama campaign. In 2004 Boxer crushed GOP challenger Bill Jones by 20% in the polls. But Jones was a big supporter of the war in Iraq when it was becoming unpopular in California and the economy was good, which always favors incumbents. Boxer will have a much tougher time with Chuck Devore and if the economy remains the primary issue, Devore could actually pull this off. While Boxer was pushing for the Obama Stimulus package, Devore was fighting tooth and nail to stop tax increases in California. The differences between the two candidates on this single issue may be enough kill Boxer's chances at a fourth term in the Senate. When coupled with an early effort at framing the debate, and setting his position on the web Boxer surely has an uphill climb ahead of her. If Devore leverages his web marketing savvy and raises enough cash to be competitive on the airways, he could in the right environment win this race. The fiscally conservative Republicans clearly have a winner in Chuck Devore, and I think by the time this election really gets rolling, fiscal conservatism may be all the rage. In Ohio former congressman Rob Portman has entered the race for the open senate seat of George Voinovich who is retiring. Voinovich was more moderate on fiscal issues, and this could be a good retention for the GOP. The other interesting races to watch will be the primary challenges of moderate to liberal Republicans like Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania and perhaps even John McCain in Arizona. The chances of the GOP retaking the senate look dim in 2010, but if the economy continues to falter, I can quickly spot a few Democrats that my be very vulnerable. Blanche Lincoln from Arkansas and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota are both considered moderate Democrats. But in tough times, and from traditionally red states, this may not be enough to let them hold their seats. Harry Ried from Nevada is doing everything in his power to bring projects to the state, but the truth of the matter is these projects often help very few people, and could even backfire if the stimulus plan fails to revitalize the economy. The bottom line for the GOP is the economy. If the unemployment rate hits 10% or just under, the Republicans could conceivably pick up three or four seats. I don't see thas as being enough of a crisis to shake loose some of the East coast democrats like Dodd, Leahy, or Mikulski, or safer seats in other states like Patty Murray of Washington and Russ Feingold of Wisconsin. If unemployment is above 10%, and all this spending causes inflation, all bets are off. In an odd twist of fate, the most vulnerable seat right now looks to be Boxer. California is already a mess, Boxer voted for the stimulus which will be seen by voters as a vote for the California budget. Devore is a certified fiscal conservative is already pressing his case on the web. Put it all together and you have the recipe for a big upset. |
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